March Madness 2024: Analyst, Predictions, and Final 4 Picks
Did you miss me? Ok, it’s been awhile since I made a post. Like, since …. December? Maybe? I forgot. But yes, I didn’t make a Super Bowl thing, and really should’ve. I did pick the Chiefs rigging a win for the Swifties beating the Niners in the Super Bowl, so I still got it. But football has been over for a month now, and now, it’s time for my favorite month of the year: March Madness
Yes, it’s finally time. Time again for your office brackets to get beat by whoever you face cause they picked their favorite colors or some animal they like to win it all. And they will be right compared to you watching basketball all year. And sure, me doing this means nothing at all, since I’m just as likely to get this all wrong. HOWEVER, I did pick UConn to win last year. And guess what? They fucking did it! So I can get some things right from time to time. But that was last year. This is now. It’s the best time for the year, so time to hear my thoughts on all these teams, whether you want to hear it or not. And who knows, maybe reading this will help you blow off some steam cause your teams didn’t make it (Sorry to Indiana State, Pittsburgh, any Big East bubble teams, and Iowa/OSU/Indiana who beat my team :D)
Like last year, here’s the full bracket to prepare yourselves for the Madness
Let’s start in the East Region
East Region
Top 4 Teams in the region
Looks who’s back as #1 yet again. Connecticut is here to defend their title, and quite frankly, even tho they did lose some good players from the championship team last year, they may be even better than that team. Led by Donovan Clingan, this UConn team is absolutely dominate, and has proven to beaten anyone by alot. Sure, they do have a few hiccups, but Dan Hurley has as ready a team as there can be for a repeat. Iowa State is the 2-seed, and they just dominated a #1 seed in Houston in their conference tournament final. This team is all defense and they will beat you that way. But the problem is just that, since their offense has no players who average more than 14 ppg. That could be a problem. But this team just gels as well as any you will see. Illinois is the opposite of Iowa State. They are all offense, and they can score with the best of them. Led by Terrance Shannon (don’t look up why he was suspended for part of the season), he makes this team go, go, and go some more. Marcus Domask is also someone on this team who can take over. However, as I said, they are all offense, so they will have to outscore teams. If they don’t, they can choke games away. Look at the Penn State, MSU and Purdue games they played. Finally, Auburn is as good as any team in country when they are going. They have a top 15 offense AND defense, and can beat you down if they feel like it (Just ask South Carolina). Bruce Pearl’s team should be ready to go, and will be a problem for the top teams to take down.
Other top teams in the bracket
Remember San Diego State and Florida Atlantic in that amazing Final 4 game last year? Well, they are back again as 5 and 8 seed, respectfully. Well, maybe for San Diego State. They did have some losses, but they played in a tough Mountain West conference this year and will be battle tested from it. Meanwhile, FAU moved to the ‘MURICAN, and while they did get 25 wins, they didn’t look as good with just about the same team as the Final 4 run. Hell, they lost to Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast, and Temple, just bad/mid teams overall that doesn’t give me confidence. BYU left the WCC to go to the Big 12, and SOMEHOW got better doing so. They shoot the fuck outta 3’s, and hit many of them, as that could be a problem for many come tourney time. Washington State, going to the WCC next year cause of the death of the Pac-12, had one of their best seasons in quite some time, having swept Arizona in the process. They play very good defense, so watch out for Wazzu. Then there’s Northwestern, the 9th seed. Being led by Boo Buie, they can beat anyone, if given the chance (Ask Purdue). But they have gotten hit with injuries lately, including losing their 2nd-best player in Ty Berry for the season, and losing their center to a foot injury. Still, look out for them.
Lower seeded teams who can get to the Sweet 16
Drake is back, and being led by one of their all-timers in Tucker DeVries and their offensive firepower, they should be ready to go. They lost last year to a Final 4 team, so maybe if you beat them, your team may make it there? UAB was as hot as any team to finish the year, as they are lead by AAC DPotY Yaxel Lendeborg to make people work for it on defense. Duquesne, in the tourney for the first time in 47 years, has won 8 straight games to get here, and will play hard for their coach who is retiring after their run ends. Sure, Yale had to beat a under .500 Brown team on a buzzer beater (and down 6 with 25 seconds left) to make it here, but they have upset teams in the tourney before. Look out for them. Morehead State and South Dakota State both have two players (Riley Minix for MSU, Zeke Mayo for SDSU) that, if they get hot, it will leave the opposing team and fans sweating. Also, congrats to 16-seed Stetson for making it in for the 1st time ever.
Best game in the 1st Round
This region is very fun. Drake/Wazzu should be a fun game, as you’ll see DeVries go against the Wazzu’s defense. Iowa State/SDSU should be interesting, as that game is in Omaha, with all the fans of both getting a nearby trip. Morehead vs. Illinois is gonna be fun, cause Illinois can give up alot of points (they gave up 97 to Minnesota in a win), so it could make casuals happy. Duquesne/BYU looks like a fun match-up, as does UAB/San Diego State, and Yale could cause problems for Auburn. NW/FAU is a coin toss for me, cause you don’t know which team will show up.
Best Potential 2nd Round game
BYU/Illinois. 1st to 110 wins. Wazzu/Iowa State. 1st to 55 wins. But Drake/Iowa State would be an Iowa battle. UConn facing a FAU team that were in the Final 4 with them last year could be interesting. Auburn/San Diego State feels like an Elite 8 game, and whoever wins will give UConn problems.
My Pick for this region
UConn. I think Auburn will give them the toughest test in the Sweet 16, and Illinois, if it can play some defense, has the talent to beat them. But like last year, until someone can prove they can do it, UConn is my pick.
West Region
(I tried to make this smaller, and fucking failed each and every time for only this one)
Top 4 Teams in the region
This is the “Anything could happen” region for me, cause everyone is a toss-up, for better or worse. UNC is the top team in the region, but there could’ve been better choices for #1 (Tennessee, for example). While North Carolina is very talented, led by Armando Bacot and RJ Davis, they have some questionable losses, like to a bad Georgia Tech team. So they can be beat. But they also swept Duke, so they can beat anyone. Arizona is the 2-seed, and just like UNC, they have ups and downs. Being led by former UNC star Caleb Love and a bunch of other talented dudes, they can beat anyone in this tourney. They also got swept by Wazzu, lost to FAU, and have bad losses to USC, Stanford, and Oregon (the latter basically set up the Ducks to make the tourney.) Baylor …. ditto. Scott Drew has another great group in the region to set-up for another long run, but they also don’t play the best of defense. And then there’s Alabama. When their offense is hot, look out! They can hit 100 easily, and hit many 3’s to beat you. The problem? Their defense is ABSOLUTE GARBAGE!! They played Florida twice in the last month, and gave up 100+ to them each time. They also gave up 117 to Kentucky. They are a double-edge sword.
Other top teams in the bracket
Saint Mary’s was one of the best teams this year in the WCC, having beaten their Gonzaga rivals twice, and beating up others with their defensive prowess. Same with 8-seed Mississippi State, having shut down the Vols twice, and being an all-around pest for many. Clemson got a nice 6-seed, and while I do think they are overseeded, they have beaten UNC on the road, and Bama and South Carolina. Meaning don’t underestimate them. Dayton has one of the best players in the tourney in DaRon Holmes II, as he is gonna be truly hard to handle and stop as any given point, along with Dayton being one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation. And then there’s my team, Michigan State. ….. The less I talk about them, the better. Yes, they can beat anyone, ask Baylor and Illinois. That is, if they are actually consistent, which they are not. By a long shot. Especially at center. But again, it is March, and it’s Tom Izzo’s time to shine.
Lower seeded teams who can get to the Sweet 16
I said “Anything Can Happen” here, and these teams are why. Nevada and New Mexico were two of the hottest teams in the Mountain West at points (Nevada finished 10-1 to end the season, New Mexico won the MW Tournament), and can beat anyone when they get going. New Mexico especially, when their offense is clicking. Grand Canyon, the one uni you probably seen in TV ads, is no slouch. They only have 4 losses, beat San Diego St., and have Bryce Drew to lead them. They can get to a Sweet 16. Charleston has to be absolutely happy to face a porous Bama defense, as they can hit 3’s as well as Bama can, and has a 12-game winning streak entering this game. The toothpaste school Colgate is back for the 5th straight time, and they have been itching for a victory. And then there’s Long Beach State, who before their conference tourney, agreed to mutually part with their coach. And he led them to a Big West tourney title. Amazing.
Best game in the 1st Round
Too many to choose, cause they can all be great. I have Charleston/Bama, cause of how many points could be scored. But New Mexico/Clemson, Colgate/Baylor, Nevada/Dayton, GCU/St. Mary’s. All great choices that you can’t go wrong with. Also, whoever wins the battle of the MSUs will be the ONE TRUE MSU.
Best Potential 2nd Round game
Michigan State vs. UNC. Yeah, I’m biased, but a battle of blue bloods in the 2nd round doesn’t sound good to you? The winner of Nevada/Dayton can beat Arizona, if LBSU doesn’t. Pick and choose between GCU/SMC/Bama/CofC. They all sound fun.
My Pick for this region
I’m not gonna lie. I really don’t know who I like in this region. I know most have Arizona, but man, those bad losses really makes me think they are frauds. I’m staying clear of Bama and their terrible defense. And I could see someone like New Mexico or GCU make an Elite 8. For now, I’m going with UNC vs. Baylor in the Elite 8, and for now, I’m giving it to Baylor cause they played in the tougher conference. Even so, I don’t like my pick.
South Region
Top 4 Teams in the region
Houston is, by far and large, the best team in this region. They earned their #1 seed by winning the Big 12 regular season in their 1st year there, and mostly dominated the league (not counting the B12 tournament final. Woof). But this team beats you with their defense (holding teams to under 50 points 11 times this season), with their all-around connection (Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer are their leaders), and they don’t turn it over. They are as dangerous as a 1-seed can be. Marquette is the 2-seed, like they were last year. And while they don’t have Michigan State to get them this year, they do have some concerns. The biggest being is their point guard Tyler Kolek gonna be healthy. He wasn’t for the Big East tourney, and if he’s not good, then it’s gonna be sweating time for Marquette fans. Kentucky and Duke are here as the 3 and 4 seeds, and like always, they have loads of talent you will see soon in the NBA. Of course, they also have flaws. Kentucky at times cannot play defense whatsoever, and Duke has some questionable losses (Wake, Pitt, and GT). Either way, these two teams can be a pest, and will contend here.
Other top teams in the bracket
Wisconsin is the #5 seed, and did some good things this season, as they are led by St. Johns transfer AJ Storr (see St. Johns, you can make it in) as they started out hot, and even beat Purdue in the end. They also had a rough Jan/Feb, with many losses, including giving Michigan their only win in their last 15 games. YIKES! Texas Tech has a new coach, and even with a new guy, and playing in a touch B12 conference, they still competed as well as any team, and earned their 6-seed. Florida is as good an offense as you will see in this tourney (ask Bama), but they are bad defensively, and also lost their starting center to a fractured leg. Wade Taylor IV and Texas A&M have some very good wins this year, including against their SEC/region mate Kentucky, but also have some baffling losses to bad teams, so you don’t know what you will get. And then there’s Nebraska, who is back for the 1st time in 10 years, and have a legitimate player in Japanese-born Keisei Tominaga, who can hit from Curry-range as well as anybody. The question is, can Nebraska win away more outside of Lincoln?
Lower seeded teams who can get to the Sweet 16
Boise State and Colorado have been as good as any team in the country as times this season, especially Colorado right now, who did suffer some injuries, but are fully healthy at the right time. They both didn’t deserve to be a 1st Four team, and should challenge Florida and more. Ask me about James Madison. No really, they were the 1st team MSU faced this year, and they went to MSU and beat them. They are legitimately good, having started out 14-0, and have the nation’s longest winning streak at the moment at 13 games. NC State was an afterthought entering the ACC tourney, as they were a 10-seed. Now they’re an 11-seed here, having won 5 games in 5 days, beating Duke, UVA, and UNC to get here. Look out for them. Vermont is once again representing the American East (and their new I-95 looking ass logo), bringing a top-40 defense with them. But the question as always with them, can they get over the hump here finally? Oakland is back again in Greg Kampe’s 40th season, and being led by Trey Townsend (along with another dude who actually went to my high school), they can hang with anyone, as they did beat Xavier. Western Kentucky goes fast as fuck, and turns it over just as much. Speed is their game for Big Red. And finally ….. Longwood. I just wanted to say Longwood hehe.
Best game in the 1st Round
JMU/Wisconsin. This has 12-5 upset written all over, as JMU feels like, if all goes right, could make an Elite 8 run. But don’t back down on Wisky, as they won’t give in that easily. Nebraska/A&M is also great for Tominaga vs. Taylor. And Florida vs. Boise/Colorado should be alot of fun.
Best Potential 2nd Round game
JMU/Wisky vs. Duke is gonna be fun, as both teams can beat Duke. Whoever wins in the Corn/A&M game facing that Houston defense with their best player is gonna be amazing. Marquette will be in a hard time with whoever wins the 7/10 match-up if Kolek isn’t healthy. And TTU/UK could be interesting.
My Pick for this region
I have Houston winning this region. No doubt, I had my doubts about them in the season, but seeing how they easily won the regular season, in this conference, to going out here, I think it can be done. With that said, I have a surprise for their E8 match-up: Their now new B12 mates, Texas Tech. I DO NOT trust UK/Duke. I don’t think Marquette is going far with Kolek at less than 100%. So why not Texas Tech? I think this should be a fun ride for both, but I trust Houston more.
Midwest Region
Top 4 Teams in the region
Well, Purdue, you are a #1 seed once more. The question is: Are you actually gonna finally live up to the hype? Or are you gonna embarrass yourselves once more? As you remember last year, this team lost to a 16-seed in FDU. A 16-seed who didn’t have anyone taller than 6’6. A 16-seed who wasn’t supposed to be there, but was cause of the NCAA’s stupid D-II transfer rules. Yes, this happened, and we should never let this down. Anyway, Zach Edey is back again, did stuff that overgrown toddler does, and won PotY again, cause why not? He also has most of his same team back, but with Lance Jones and Braden Smith helping them get tons of 3’s made when Edey doesn’t have the ball. Or when a foul isn’t fucking called. Oh, there were alot of fouls called. Edey got too many of them in any game. But that was with Big 10 refs. How will they do when there isn’t a prime bias there? We’ll see soon enough.
On to the others, Tennessee has probably the actual PotY in Dalton Knecht, who is just an absolutely brilliant player in everything. He can score 30-40 easily like it’s nothing, and while Tennessee is more known for their defense, Knecht has turned them into an offense-oriented machine, and against good teams, too. Creighton is back again, and being led once more by the trio of Ryan Kalkbrenner, Baylor Scheierman, and Trey Alexander. They were this close to getting to a Final 4 last year. Can they get there this time? Kansas is back again for the 34th-straight time, and well …. it was a down year for them. They finished as a 6-seed in the B12 tournament, lost some questionable games (but also beat UConn), and also lost some players. The giant dickhead Hunter Dickenson got a dislocated shoulder in the Houston game, and Kevin McCullar Jr. is out of the tourney with an injury. That isn’t good for a team who, without both, got crushed by Cincinatti. How are they gonna handle better teams than them?
Other top teams in the bracket
Hey, remember in February we had discussions about Gonzaga maybe missing the tournament? Well, that changed with a W at Kentucky, and now they are here as a (pretty overseeded, in my opinion) 5-seed. Yes, Graham Ike is gonna dominate, but they, at times, look pretty beatable. South Carolina was picked to finished dead last in the SEC. Instead, they finished 26-7, beat UK and Tennessee, and has a game-changer in Collin Murray-Boyles. Remember Max Abmas from that Oral Roberts’s Sweet 16 run in 2021? Well, he’s with Texas now, and is still doing his thing, even if Texas has underachieved with this team. Whoever wins between Utah State and TCU is gonna be a challenge for Purdue. Utah State won the MW regular season title, and being led by Great Osobor, are gonna be a pain. TCU, while they didn’t finish too well, still gave Houston one of their 4 losses, so they aren’t a pushover either.
Lower seeded teams who can get to the Sweet 16
I’m not gonna say anything about Virginia, cause I do not care about the “Iowa Football of college basketball”. But Colorado State was a top 15 team at one point, and has a legit dude in Isaiah Stevens. Oregon was dead in the water, and not anywhere close to a bubble team entering the (final) Pac-12 tournament. But that’s the beauty of tourneys, as Oregon went and won it out, beating Arizona in the process. Why not them now? Then there’s the 12 and 13 seeds here. McNeese State is as great as any team in the nation right now, having won 30 games, beating the breaks off their own conference, and beating some other teams *coughMichigancough* along the way. Oh, and you remember Will Wade? Yeah, that’s who’s coaching them. Samford is gonna be a handful, as they legit have a top-10 3-point shooting team, hitting almost 40% of them. They will give Kansas a game. Akron is still pretty good as usual, as Enrique Freeman has the Zips back in the tourney. And, oh, who’s this we see once more? Saint Peter’s, after their 2022 run that saw them make the Elite 8 after beating Purdue (heh), is back again, and once more, as a 15-seed. Do they have the same magic in them that we saw before?
Best game in the 1st Round
Utah State/TCU, McNeese/Gonzaga, Samford/Kansas. All legit games, with all the different ways that these teams can give fights and make for great entertainment. McNeese/Gonzaga is probably my favorite one of this whole tourney. But don’t forget about the Ducks vs. Cocks. That could be a good one. And least we forget about a certain 1-seed maybe making MORE (bad) history again vs. a 16-seed?
Best Potential 2nd Round game
I’ll say it. Whoever wins in Utah State/TCU I think has a great chance vs. Purdue. Abmas vs. Knecht would be much-watch TV/streaming. Gonzaga vs. Kansas could be fun, but so would McNeese vs. Samford. And SCAR/Ducks vs. Creighton? That could be very entertaining.
My Pick for this region
My pick for this region is …. NOT Purdue. You think I trust them when they won’t be refbabied in this tournament like they were in the Big 10? Nah, I legit have them losing to Utah State, and have USU in the Elite 8. Why is that? Cause I have them facing McNeese in the Sweet 16. As for the bottom, I have Creighton vs. Tennessee in the S16, and that should be a Final 4 game, not here. But one has to win, and I like Creighton a bit more, and have them erasing the demons from last year and making it to the Final 4.
Final 4/Championship Picks
So my Final 4 is UConn vs. Baylor, and Houston vs. Creighton, a Big 12 vs. Big East battle for both. Sure, I only had one team in the Final 4 last year. But that team that made it there was Connecticut, and I picked them to win. And boy, did they win it. So fuck it, LET’S DO IT AGAIN!! I got them beating Houston in the championship game, and winning Back-2-Back titles, the 1st to do so since Florida did in the 2000’s. Congrats to you, UConn! Or to whoever else, cause I just jinxed them.
As always, enjoy the tournament.